Top 5 Things Health Professions Students Should Know About Ecology and Waste Management.

The environments in which we live affect individual and community risk for disease transmission and illness severity. Communities' and neighborhoods' waste stream management designs and health care organizations' spatial and structural architecture also influence individuals' and communities' pathogenic vulnerabilities and how well health sector industrial hygiene practices support them. This article describes a One Health approach to planetary environmental health and suggests strategies for implementing a One Health or Planetary Health approach in the context of climate change.

Detection of acute dengue virus infection, with and without concurrent malaria infection, in a cohort of febrile children in Kenya, 2014-2019, by clinicians or machine learning algorithms.

Poor access to diagnostic testing in resource limited settings restricts surveillance for emerging infections, such as dengue virus (DENV), to clinician suspicion, based on history and exam observations alone. We investigated the ability of machine learning to detect DENV based solely on data available at the clinic visit. We extracted symptom and physical exam data from 6,208 pediatric febrile illness visits to Kenyan public health clinics from 2014-2019 and created a dataset with 113 clinical features. Malaria testing was available at the clinic site. DENV testing was performed afterwards. We randomly sampled 70% of the dataset to develop DENV and malaria prediction models using boosted logistic regression, decision trees and random forests, support vector machines, naïve Bayes, and neural networks with 10-fold cross validation, tuned to maximize accuracy. 30% of the dataset was reserved to validate the models. 485 subjects (7.8%) had DENV, and 3,145 subjects (50.7%) had malaria. 220 (3.5%) subjects had co-infection with both DENV and malaria. In the validation dataset, clinician accuracy for diagnosis of malaria was high (82% accuracy, 85% sensitivity, 80% specificity). Accuracy of the models for predicting malaria diagnosis ranged from 53-69% (35-94% sensitivity, 11-80% specificity). In contrast, clinicians detected only 21 of 145 cases of DENV (80% accuracy, 14% sensitivity, 85% specificity). Of the six models, only logistic regression identified any DENV case (8 cases, 91% accuracy, 5.5% sensitivity, 98% specificity). Without diagnostic testing, interpretation of clinical findings by humans or machines cannot detect DENV at 8% prevalence. Access to point-of-care diagnostic tests must be prioritized to address global inequities in emerging infections surveillance.

The Importance of Including Non-Household Environments in Dengue Vector Control Activities.

Most vector control activities in urban areas are focused on household environments; however, information relating to infection risks in spaces other than households is poor, and the relative risk that these spaces represent has not yet been fully understood. We used data-driven simulations to investigate the importance of household and non-household environments for dengue entomological risk in two Kenyan cities where dengue circulation has been reported. Fieldwork was performed using four strategies that targeted different stages of mosquitoes: ovitraps, larval collections, Prokopack aspiration, and BG-sentinel traps. Data were analyzed separately between household and non-household environments to assess mosquito presence, the number of vectors collected, and the risk factors for vector presence. With these data, we simulated vector and human populations to estimate the parameter m and mosquito-to-human density in both household and non-household environments. Among the analyzed variables, the main difference was found in mosquito abundance, which was consistently higher in non-household environments in Kisumu but was similar in Ukunda. Risk factor analysis suggests that small, clean water-related containers serve as mosquito breeding places in households as opposed to the trash- and rainfall-related containers found in non-household structures. We found that the density of vectors (m) was higher in non-household than household environments in Kisumu and was also similar or slightly lower between both environments in Ukunda. These results suggest that because vectors are abundant, there is a potential risk of transmission in non-household environments; hence, vector control activities should take these spaces into account.

Does Intra-Uterine Exposure to the Zika Virus Increase Risks of Cognitive Delay at Preschool Ages? Findings from a Zika-Exposed Cohort from Grenada, West Indies.

Maternal infection with Zika virus (ZIKV) is associated with a distinct pattern of birth defects, known as congenital Zika syndrome (CZS). In ZIKV-exposed children without CZS, it is often unclear whether they were protected from in utero infection and neurotropism. Early neurodevelopmental assessment is essential for detecting neurodevelopmental delays (NDDs) and prioritizing at-risk children for early intervention. We compared neurodevelopmental outcomes between ZIKV-exposed and unexposed children at 1, 3 and 4 years to assess exposure-associated NDD risk. A total of 384 mother-child dyads were enrolled during a period of active ZIKV transmission (2016-2017) in Grenada, West Indies. Exposure status was based on laboratory assessment of prenatal and postnatal maternal serum. Neurodevelopment was assessed using the Oxford Neurodevelopment Assessment, the NEPSY® Second Edition and Cardiff Vision Tests, at 12 (n = 66), 36 (n = 58) and 48 (n = 59) months, respectively. There were no differences in NDD rates or vision scores between ZIKV-exposed and unexposed children. Rates of microcephaly at birth (0.88% vs. 0.83%, p = 0.81), and childhood stunting and wasting did not differ between groups. Our results show that Grenadian ZIKV-exposed children, the majority of whom were without microcephaly, had similar neurodevelopmental outcomes to unexposed controls up to at least an age of 4 years.

Factors Associated with Chikungunya Infection among Pregnant Women in Grenada, West Indies.

Neonates are vulnerable to vector-borne diseases given the potential for mother-to-child congenital transmission. To determine factors associated with chikungunya virus (CHIKV) infection among pregnant women in Grenada, West Indies, a retrospective cohort study enrolled women who were pregnant during the 2014 CHIKV epidemic. In all, 520/688 women (75.5%) were CHIKV IgG positive. Low incomes, use of pit latrines, lack of home window screens, and subjective reporting of frequent mosquito bites were associated with increased risk of CHIKV infection in bivariate analyses. In the multivariate modified Poisson regression model, low income (adjusted relative risk [aRR]: 1.05 [95% CI: 1.01-1.10]) and frequent mosquito bites (aRR: 1.05 [95% CI: 1.01-1.10]) were linked to increased infection risk. In Grenada, markers of low socioeconomic status are associated with CHIKV infection among pregnant women. Given that Grenada will continue to face vector-borne outbreaks, interventions dedicated to improving living conditions of the most disadvantaged will help reduce the incidence of arboviral infections.

Spatiotemporal overlapping of dengue, chikungunya, and malaria infections in children in Kenya.

Malaria, chikungunya virus (CHIKV), and dengue virus (DENV) are endemic causes of fever among children in Kenya. The risks of infection are multifactorial and may be influenced by built and social environments. The high resolution overlapping of these diseases and factors affecting their spatial heterogeneity has not been investigated in Kenya. From 2014-2018, we prospectively followed a cohort of children from four communities in both coastal and western Kenya. Overall, 9.8% were CHIKV seropositive, 5.5% were DENV seropositive, and 39.1% were malaria positive (3521 children tested). The spatial analysis identified hot-spots for all three diseases in each site and in multiple years. The results of the model showed that the risk of exposure was linked to demographics with common factors for the three diseases including the presence of litter, crowded households, and higher wealth in these communities. These insights are of high importance to improve surveillance and targeted control of mosquito-borne diseases in Kenya.

Pupal productivity of larval habitats of Aedes aegypti in Msambweni, Kwale County, Kenya.

Aedes aegypti is an important vector of several arboviruses including dengue and chikungunya viruses. Accurate identification of larval habitats of Ae. aegypti is considered an essential step in targeted control. This study determined Ae. aegypti productivity in selected larval habitats in Msambweni, Kwale County, Kenya. Three sequential larval habitat surveys were conducted. The first survey was habitat census (baseline) through which 83 representative larval habitats were identified and selected. The second and third surveys involved estimating daily productivity of the 83 selected larval habitats for 30 consecutive days during a wet and a dry season, respectively. Of 664 larval habitats examined at baseline, 144 larval habitats (21.7%) were found to be infested with Ae. aegypti larvae. At baseline, majority (71%) of the pupae were collected from two (2/6) larval habitat types, tires and pots. Multivariate analysis identified habitat type and the habitat being movable as the predictors for pupal abundance. During the 30-day daily pupal production surveys, only a few of the habitats harbored pupae persistently. Pupae were found in 28% and 12% of the larval habitats during the wet and dry seasons, respectively. In the wet season, drums, tires, and pots were identified as the key habitat types accounting for 85% of all pupae sampled. Three habitats (all drums) accounted for 80% of all the pupae collected in the dry season. Predictors for pupal productivity in the wet season were habitat type, place (whether the habitat is located at the back or front of the house), habitat purpose (use of the water in the habitat), and source of water. Although the multivariate model for habitat type did not converge, habitat type and habitat size were the only significant predictors during the dry season. Drums, pots, and tires were sources of more than 85% of Ae. aegypti pupae, reinforcing the "key container concept." Targeting these three types of habitats makes epidemiological sense, especially during the dry season.

Exploring potential risk pathways with high risk groups for urban Rift Valley fever virus introduction, transmission, and persistence in two urban centers of Kenya.

Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV) is a zoonotic arbovirus that has profound impact on domestic ruminants and can also be transmitted to humans via infected animal secretions. Urban areas in endemic regions across Africa have susceptible animal and human hosts, dense vector distributions, and source livestock (often from high risk locations to meet the demand for animal protein). Yet, there has never been a documented urban outbreak of RVF. To understand the likely risk of RVFV introduction to urban communities from their perspective and guide future initiatives, we conducted focus group discussions with slaughterhouse workers, slaughterhouse animal product traders, and livestock owners in Kisumu City and Ukunda Town in Kenya. For added perspective and data triangulation, in-depth interviews were conducted one-on-one with meat inspector veterinarians from selected slaughterhouses. A theoretical framework relevant to introduction, transmission, and potential persistence of RVF in urban areas is presented here. Urban livestock were primarily mentioned as business opportunities, but also had personal sentiment. In addition to slaughtering risks, perceived risk factors included consumption of fresh milk. High risk groups' knowledge and experience with RVFV and other zoonotic diseases impacted their consideration of personal risk, with consensus towards lower risk in the urban setting compared to rural areas as determination of health risk was said to primarily rely on hygiene practices rather than the slaughtering process. Groups relied heavily on veterinarians to confirm animal health and meat safety, yet veterinarians reported difficulty in accessing RVFV diagnostics. We also identified vulnerable public health regulations including corruption in meat certification outside of the slaughterhouse system, and blood collected during slaughter being used for food and medicine, which could provide a means for direct RVFV community transmission. These factors, when compounded by diverse urban vector breeding habitats and dense human and animal populations, could create suitable conditions for RVFV to arrive an urban center via a viremic imported animal, transmit to locally owned animals and humans, and potentially adapt to secondary vectors and persist in the urban setting. This explorative qualitative study proposes risk pathways and provides initial insight towards determining how urban areas could adapt control measures and plan future initiatives to better understand urban RVF potential.

Why Climate Action Is Global Health Action.

The impacts of climate change on global health and populations are far-reaching, yet they disproportionately affect vulnerable groups, thereby exacerbating disparities. As humanity reckons with the emergency of climate change, our global health community needs to contend with our own contributions to greenhouse gas emissions. We know that transformation is possible and that climate action is the antidote to the existential challenge. As a global health community, we have an immense opportunity, responsibility, and commitment to lead, support, inspire, and empower climate action, research, and innovation that align deeply with our mission and core values.

Dietary Intake and Pneumococcal Vaccine Response Among Children (5-7 Years) in Msambweni Division, Kwale County, Kenya.

Background: Vaccine and sufficient food availability are key factors for reducing pneumonia outbreaks in sub-Saharan Africa. Methods: In this study, the 10-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (Synflorix® or PCV10) was administered to a child cohort (5-7 years old, n = 237) in Msambweni, Kenya, to determine relationships between dietary intake, nutritional/socioeconomic status of mothers/caregivers, and vaccine response. 7-day food frequency questionnaire (FFQ), dietary diversity score (DDS) and single 24-h dietary recall were used to address participants' dietary assessment and nutritional status. Individual food varieties were recorded and divided into 9 food groups as recommended by Food and Agriculture Organization. Anthropometric measurements, nasopharyngeal swabs and vaccine administration were performed at the initial visit. Participants were followed 4-8 weeks with a blood draw for pneumococcal IgG titers assessed by Luminex assay. Findings: Chronic malnutrition was prevalent in the cohort (15% stunting, 16% underweight). Unbalanced dietary intake was observed, with mean energy intake 14% below Recommended Dietary Allowances (1,822 Kcal) for 5-7 years age range. 72% of the daily energy was derived from carbohydrates, 18% from fats and only 10% from proteins. Poor anthropometric status (stunting/underweight) was associated with low socioeconomic/educational status and younger mother/caregiver age (p < 0.002). Limited intake of essential micronutrients (vitamins A, E, K) and minerals (calcium, potassium) associated with low consumption of fresh fruits, vegetables, and animal source foods (dairy, meat) was observed and correlated with poor vaccine response (p < 0.001). In contrast, children who consumed higher amounts of dietary fiber, vitamin B1, zinc, iron, and magnesium had adequate vaccine response (p < 0.05). Correlation between higher dietary diversity score (DDS), higher Vitamin E, K, Zinc intake and adequate vaccine response was also observed (p < 0.03). Interpretation: Overall, this study highlights ongoing food scarcity and malnutrition in Kenya and demonstrates the links between adequate socioeconomic conditions, adequate nutrient intake, and vaccine efficacy.

Characterizing the Severity of SARS-CoV-2 Variants at a Single Pediatric Center.

Since March 2020, SARS-CoV-2 has plagued the world with COVID-19 and individuals of all ages have experienced varying symptoms of disease. Older adults were experiencing more severe disease compared to children and were prioritized by vaccination efforts. While biologic therapies and vaccinations were implemented, there were changes in public health restrictions with subsequent surges resulting in more infected children. During these surges there was a rise of different SARS-CoV-2 variants with the dominant variant initially alpha (B.1.1.7 and other Pango lineages) and epsilon (B.1.427/B.1.429) in early 2021 and a dramatic shift to delta (B.1.617.2 and other Pango lineages) by mid-summer 2021. In this study we aimed to characterize the clinical severity and host factors associated with disease by SARS-CoV-2 variant and evaluate if there are differences in disease severity by circulating variant. We retrospectively included all individuals 0-25 years of age who presented to our center and had a positive SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR, SARS-CoV-2 variant mutation testing, and documented clinical notes from 1 January 2021 through 31 December 2021. We identified 745 individuals who met inclusion criteria and found the delta variant was associated with severe/critical disease compared to the other variants studied. The results of the model showed that underlying respiratory disease and diabetes were risk factors for progression to severe disease. These insights are important when evaluating public health measures and treatment options for children as more variants arise.

Larval source reduction with a purpose: Designing and evaluating a household- and school-based intervention in coastal Kenya.

BACKGROUND: Since Aedes aegypti mosquitoes preferentially breed in domestic containers, control efforts focus on larval source reduction. Our objectives were to design and test the effectiveness of a source reduction intervention to improve caregiver knowledge and behaviors in coastal Kenya. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We conducted a cluster-randomized controlled trial with 261 households from 5 control villages and 259 households from 5 intervention villages. From each household, one child (10-16 years old) and his or her primary caregiver participated in the intervention. We assessed caregiver knowledge and behavior at baseline, as well as 3 and 12 months after the intervention. We assessed household entomological indices at baseline and 12 months after the intervention to avoid seasonal interference. We conducted qualitative interviews with 34 caregivers to understand barriers and facilitators to change. We counted and weighed containers collected by children and parents during a community container clean-up and recycling event. After 12 months, caregiver knowledge about and self-reported behavior related to at least one source reduction technique was more than 50 percentage points higher in the intervention compared to control arm (adjusted risk differences for knowledge: 0.69, 95% CI [0.56 to 0.82], and behavior: 0.58 [0.43 to 0.73]). Respondents stated that other family members' actions were the primary barriers to proper container management. The number of containers at households did not differ significantly across arms even though children and parents collected 17,200 containers (1 ton of plastics) which were used to planted 4,000 native trees as part of the community event. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our study demonstrates that source reduction interventions can be effective if designed with an understanding of the social and entomological context. Further, source reduction is not an individual issue, but rather a social/communal issue, requiring the participation of other household and community members to be sustained.

Uncovering the Burden of Dengue in Africa: Considerations on Magnitude, Misdiagnosis, and Ancestry.

Dengue is a re-emerging neglected disease of major public health importance. This review highlights important considerations for dengue disease in Africa, including epidemiology and underestimation of disease burden in African countries, issues with malaria misdiagnosis and co-infections, and potential evidence of genetic protection from severe dengue disease in populations of African descent. The findings indicate that dengue virus prevalence in African countries and populations may be more widespread than reported data suggests, and that the Aedes mosquito vectors appear to be increasing in dissemination and number. Changes in climate, population, and plastic pollution are expected to worsen the dengue situation in Africa. Dengue misdiagnosis is also a problem in Africa, especially due to the typical non-specific clinical presentation of dengue leading to misdiagnosis as malaria. Finally, research suggests that a protective genetic component against severe dengue exists in African descent populations, but further studies should be conducted to strengthen this association in various populations, taking into consideration socioeconomic factors that may contribute to these findings. The main takeaway is that Africa should not be overlooked when it comes to dengue, and more attention and resources should be devoted to this disease in Africa.

Paving the way for human vaccination against Rift Valley fever virus: A systematic literature review of RVFV epidemiology from 1999 to 2021.

BACKGROUND: Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV) is a lethal threat to humans and livestock in many parts of Africa, the Arabian Peninsula, and the Indian Ocean. This systematic review's objective was to consolidate understanding of RVFV epidemiology during 1999-2021 and highlight knowledge gaps relevant to plans for human vaccine trials. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The review is registered with PROSPERO (CRD42020221622). Reports of RVFV infection or exposure among humans, animals, and/or vectors in Africa, the Arabian Peninsula, and the Indian Ocean during the period January 1999 to June 2021 were eligible for inclusion. Online databases were searched for publications, and supplemental materials were recovered from official reports and research colleagues. Exposures were classified into five groups: 1) acute human RVF cases, 2) acute animal cases, 3) human RVFV sero-surveys, 4) animal sero-surveys, and 5) arthropod infections. Human risk factors, circulating RVFV lineages, and surveillance methods were also tabulated. In meta-analysis of risks, summary odds ratios were computed using random-effects modeling. 1104 unique human or animal RVFV transmission events were reported in 39 countries during 1999-2021. Outbreaks among humans or animals occurred at rates of 5.8/year and 12.4/year, respectively, with Mauritania, Madagascar, Kenya, South Africa, and Sudan having the most human outbreak years. Men had greater odds of RVFV infection than women, and animal contact, butchering, milking, and handling aborted material were significantly associated with greater odds of exposure. Animal infection risk was linked to location, proximity to water, and exposure to other herds or wildlife. RVFV was detected in a variety of mosquito vectors during interepidemic periods, confirming ongoing transmission. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: With broad variability in surveillance, case finding, survey design, and RVFV case confirmation, combined with uncertainty about populations-at-risk, there were inconsistent results from location to location. However, it was evident that RVFV transmission is expanding its range and frequency. Gaps assessment indicated the need to harmonize human and animal surveillance and improve diagnostics and genotyping. Given the frequency of RVFV outbreaks, human vaccination has strong potential to mitigate the impact of this now widely endemic disease.

Climate change and global health: A call to more research and more action.

There is increasing understanding, globally, that climate change and increased pollution will have a profound and mostly harmful effect on human health. This review brings together international experts to describe both the direct (such as heat waves) and indirect (such as vector-borne disease incidence) health impacts of climate change. These impacts vary depending on vulnerability (i.e., existing diseases) and the international, economic, political, and environmental context. This unique review also expands on these issues to address a third category of potential longer-term impacts on global health: famine, population dislocation, and environmental justice and education. This scholarly resource explores these issues fully, linking them to global health in urban and rural settings in developed and developing countries. The review finishes with a practical discussion of action that health professionals around the world in our field can yet take.

Urban risk factors for human Rift Valley fever virus exposure in Kenya.

The Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV) is a zoonotic arbovirus that can also transmit directly to humans from livestock. Previous studies have shown consumption of sick animal products are risk factors for RVFV infection, but it is difficult to disentangle those risk factors from other livestock rearing activities. Urban areas have an increased demand for animal source foods, different vector distributions, and various arboviruses are understood to establish localized urban transmission cycles. Thus far, RVFV is an unevaluated public health risk in urban areas within endemic regions. We tested participants in our ongoing urban cohort study on dengue (DENV) and chikungunya (CHIKV) virus for RVFV exposure and found 1.6% (57/3,560) of individuals in two urban areas of Kenya had anti-RVFV IgG antibodies. 88% (50/57) of RVFV exposed participants also had antibodies to DENV, CHIKV, or both. Although livestock ownership was very low in urban study sites, RVFV exposure was overall significantly associated with seeing goats around the homestead (OR = 2.34 (CI 95%: 1.18-4.69, p = 0.02) and in Kisumu, RVFV exposure was associated with consumption of raw milk (OR = 6.28 (CI 95%: 0.94-25.21, p = 0.02). In addition, lack of piped water and use of small jugs (15-20 liters) for water was associated with a higher risk of RVFV exposure (OR = 5.36 (CI 95%: 1.23-16.44, p = 0.01) and this may contribute to interepidemic vector-borne maintenance of RVFV. We also investigated perception towards human vaccination for RVFV and identified high acceptance (91% (97/105) at our study sites. This study provides baseline evidence to guide future studies investigating the urban potential of RVFV and highlights the unexplored role of animal products in continued spread of RVFV.

Wild-type Yellow fever virus in cerebrospinal fluid from fatal cases in Brazil, 2018.

Yellow fever virus (YFV) is the causative agent of yellow fever (YF), a hemorrhagic and viscerotropic acute disease. Severe YF has been described in approximately 15-25% of YF patients, with 20-50% of severe YF cases being fatal. Here we analyzed cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) samples collected during the YF outbreak in Brazil in 2018, aiming to investigate CNS neuroinvasion in fatal YFV cases. YFV RNA was screened by RT-qPCR targeting the 3'UTR region of the YFV genome in CSF. CSF samples were tested for the presence of anti-YFV IgM and neutralizing antibodies, coupled with routine laboratory examinations. Among the 13 patients studied, we detected anti-YFV IgM in CSF from eight patients and YFV RNA in CSF from five patients. YFV RNA genomic load in CSF samples ranged from 1.75×103 to 5.42×103 RNA copies/mL. We genotyped YFV from three CSF samples that grouped with other YFV samples from the 2018 outbreak in Brazil within the South-American I genotype. Even though descriptions of neurologic manifestations due to wild type YFV (WT-YFV) infection are rare, since the last YF outbreak in Brazil in 2017-2018, a few studies have demonstrated WT-YFV RNA in CSF samples from YF fatal cases. Serological tests indicated the presence of IgM and neutralizing antibodies against YFV in CSF samples from two patients. Although the presence of viral RNA, IgM and neutralizing antibodies in CSF samples could indicate neuroinvasiveness, further studies are needed to better elucidate the role of YFV neuroinvasion and possible impacts in disease pathogenesis.

Potent neutralization of Rift Valley fever virus by human monoclonal antibodies through fusion inhibition.

Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV), an emerging arboviral and zoonotic bunyavirus, causes severe disease in livestock and humans. Here, we report the isolation of a panel of monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) from the B cells of immune individuals following natural infection in Kenya or immunization with MP-12 vaccine. The B cell responses of individuals who were vaccinated or naturally infected recognized similar epitopes on both Gc and Gn proteins. The Gn-specific mAbs and two mAbs that do not recognize either monomeric Gc or Gn alone but recognized the hetero-oligomer glycoprotein complex (Gc+Gn) when Gc and Gn were coexpressed exhibited potent neutralizing activities in vitro, while Gc-specific mAbs exhibited relatively lower neutralizing capacity. The two Gc+Gn-specific mAbs and the Gn domain A-specific mAbs inhibited RVFV fusion to cells, suggesting that mAbs can inhibit the exposure of the fusion loop in Gc, a class II fusion protein, and thus prevent fusion by an indirect mechanism without direct fusion loop contact. Competition-binding analysis with coexpressed Gc/Gn and mutagenesis library screening indicated that these mAbs recognize four major antigenic sites, with two sites of vulnerability for neutralization on Gn. In experimental models of infection in mice, representative mAbs recognizing three of the antigenic sites reduced morbidity and mortality when used at a low dose in both prophylactic and therapeutic settings. This study identifies multiple candidate mAbs that may be suitable for use in humans against RVFV infection and highlights fusion inhibition against bunyaviruses as a potential contributor to potent antibody-mediated neutralization.

Impact of recent climate extremes on mosquito-borne disease transmission in Kenya.

Climate change and variability influence temperature and rainfall, which impact vector abundance and the dynamics of vector-borne disease transmission. Climate change is projected to increase the frequency and intensity of extreme climate events. Mosquito-borne diseases, such as dengue fever, are primarily transmitted by Aedes aegypti mosquitoes. Freshwater availability and temperature affect dengue vector populations via a variety of biological processes and thus influence the ability of mosquitoes to effectively transmit disease. However, the effect of droughts, floods, heat waves, and cold waves is not well understood. Using vector, climate, and dengue disease data collected between 2013 and 2019 in Kenya, this retrospective cohort study aims to elucidate the impact of extreme rainfall and temperature on mosquito abundance and the risk of arboviral infections. To define extreme periods of rainfall and land surface temperature (LST), we calculated monthly anomalies as deviations from long-term means (1983-2019 for rainfall, 2000-2019 for LST) across four study locations in Kenya. We classified extreme climate events as the upper and lower 10% of these calculated LST or rainfall deviations. Monthly Ae. aegypti abundance was recorded in Kenya using four trapping methods. Blood samples were also collected from children with febrile illness presenting to four field sites and tested for dengue virus using an IgG enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) and polymerase chain reaction (PCR). We found that mosquito eggs and adults were significantly more abundant one month following an abnormally wet month. The relationship between mosquito abundance and dengue risk follows a non-linear association. Our findings suggest that early warnings and targeted interventions during periods of abnormal rainfall and temperature, especially flooding, can potentially contribute to reductions in risk of viral transmission.